National Bureau of Economic Research
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Private Sector Responses to Public Transit Initiatives
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Today, 55 percent of the world’s population lives in cities, a share expected to reach 70 percent by 2050. Much of this growth will occur in developing countries, which are investing heavily in mass transit to expand access to jobs and services. Private minibuses already dominate many urban markets: in Lagos—the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa—minibuses accounted for 62 percent of all trips in 2009, versus just 5 percent for public buses. New public transit investments may therefore impact commuters both directly and indirectly if private operators adjust their routes, frequencies, or fares in response.
Starting in 2020, the Lagos government launched 64 new public bus routes served by 820 large, modern buses. These public buses can carry up to 70 passengers each, compared with 14 in the most common…
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries

The Economics of Counterfeiting
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Intellectual property (IP) rights and counterfeiting have permeated everyday lives as globalization, technological advancement, and AI flourish. Interbrand estimates that the brand value of Louis Vuitton was $26.3 billion in 2023, as an example of the IP value of brands. The values brands possess generate incentives for counterfeiting and imitation. Counterfeiting cuts across countries and industries. Notably, counterfeit footwear has topped the seizure list of the US customs service for four years, accounting for nearly 40 percent of total seizures.1 The origins, impacts, and remedies of counterfeits and the protection of IP are pertinent topics to ...
From the NBER Bulletin on Health

Addressing Common Misconceptions About the Child Mental Health Crisis
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The US Surgeon General has called the child mental health crisis “the defining public health crisis of our time.” In 2020, 13 percent of US children aged 3 to 17 had a diagnosed mental or behavioral condition. In 2021, mental health services for children cost $31 billion—47 percent of pediatric medical spending. Childhood mental health issues are linked to lower educational attainment, reduced employment, and increased use of welfare programs. Also, youth suicide rates are especially high in the US; males aged 15 to 19 have a rate four times higher than in France. In Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis (NBER Working Paper 33632), Janet Currie explores three common misconceptions about this youth mental health...
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship as an Alternative to Flexibility at Work
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The surge in remote work in recent years has transformed labor markets, with potentially important implications for the interaction between workplace flexibility and entrepreneurship. In Hustling from Home? Work from Home Flexibility and Entrepreneurial Entry (NBER Working Paper 33237), John M. Barrios, Yael Hochberg, and Hanyi (Livia) Yi explore whether the increased flexibility provided by work-from-home (WFH) arrangements has affected entrepreneurial decisions. They focus on the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment and analyze how the sudden shift to remote work affected new business creation. Guided…
Featured Working Papers
Medicare Institutional Special Needs Plans reduced quarterly hospitalization rates among nursing home residents with dementia by more than 3 percentage points, or about one-third of all hospitalizations, according to an analysis of data on 12 million resident-quarters from 2016–2022 by Momotazur Rahman, Brian McGarry, Elizabeth M. White, David C. Grabowski, and Cyrus M. Kosar.
77 percent of the regional variation in healthcare utilization among households in the US Military Health System in the first year after they relocate are attributable to place-based supply factors rather than patient demand, according to a study of 3 million military enrollees and their dependents by William P. Luan, Roxana Leal, John S. Zhou, and Jonathan S. Skinner.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, and Olivier Coibion survey European households and find that a one-point increase in an index of geopolitical concerns (on a scale from 0 to 10) is associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease in nondurable spending and a 4.5 point drop in outlays on durable goods.
In a large-scale field experiment, Rebecca Mary Myerson, Allison Espeseth, and Laura Dague find that sending pre-recorded calls offering free assistance during the Medicaid renewal process increased successful renewals by 1 percentage point, with stronger effects among those with chronic conditions (3 percentage points).
In a study of a large minimum wage increase in Uruguay in 2005, Marcelo L. Bergolo, Rodrigo Ceni, Mathias Fondo, and Damián Vergara find a reduction in wage inequality as a result of compressed wage premia within firms. They attribute 70 percent of the wage effect to changes within firms.
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